BIMCO has spotlighted a growing disconnect between container freight rates and the rising prices of second-hand container ships, as idle ship capacity has remained below 1% throughout 2025.
In its latest “Shipping Number of the Week,” BIMCO reports that despite a significant drop in freight rates, the average price of five-year-old container ships has climbed 17% year-on-year and 6% since the start of 2025.
As of late August 2024, the average price per TEU for five-year-old container ships stood at $9,761/TEU. By early 2025, this figure had risen to $10,758/TEU, reaching $11,413/TEU by late August.
Feeder Ships Lead Price Growth
Feeder ships, with capacities under 3,000 TEU, have experienced the sharpest price increase, averaging a 26% rise year-on-year. Meanwhile, container spot freight rates for Shanghai exports have plummeted 51% since late August 2024 and 42% since the start of 2025, according to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange. Average freight rates for Chinese exports have similarly dropped 41% year-on-year and 25% year-to-date.
Global freight rates have shown slightly more resilience but remain in decline, as market volumes have failed to match the year-to-date fleet growth of 8% year-on-year.
Time Charter Rates Support Second-Hand Prices
While freight rates have not bolstered second-hand ship prices, time charter rates have. Like five-year-old ship prices, time charter rates for 6–12-month periods have risen 17% year-on-year and 9% year-to-date.
This divergence between rates and prices is underpinned by the low idle ship capacity, which has stayed below 1% in 2025, according to Alphaliner. In contrast, newbuild container ship prices have dropped 4% both year-on-year and year-to-date. As a result, the average price of five-year-old ships now equals 80% of the average newbuild price, marking the highest relative price since late 2022.
Future Fleet Growth and Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the container fleet is set to expand further, with 2.3M TEU of capacity scheduled for delivery in 2025 and 2026. This represents a 7% increase in fleet capacity before factoring in the recycling of older ships.
“While trade uncertainty persists, container volumes are unlikely to grow at the same pace as the fleet. Under normal conditions, we would expect time charter rates and second-hand prices to eventually decline. However, feeder ships under 3,000 TEU may remain relatively resilient, as scheduled deliveries through 2026 will only add about 3% to that segment’s total capacity,” said BIMCO Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen.
©2024 Riviera Maritime Media Ltd by Rebecca Moore