According to data from Xeneta, this growth occurred even as factors like higher tariffs and US trade policies reduced early shipping activity. Despite the volume increase, October was the sixth consecutive month of declining spot rates, which fell by 3% to $2.58 per kg. Contract rates saw an even steeper drop of 8% to $2.31 per kg, indicating caution from both freight forwarders and carriers.
Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, noted that the market is shifting to favor shippers. He highlighted a 6% decline in cargo volumes between Europe and North America as a possible warning sign for global trade, even though spot rates on that specific route increased by 4%.
Global airfreight capacity grew by 5% in October, outpacing demand for the second time this year. This supply and demand imbalance continues to put pressure on rates and load factors, pointing to a cooling market. While demand from the Asia Pacific region to Europe climbed 11% since August, this was less than the 16% increase seen during the same period last year.
A significant shift in trade patterns is also underway. China’s e-commerce exports to Europe jumped 62% in September, while its shipments to the United States dropped by 34%. This has led to a reallocation of freighter capacity toward the Asia-Europe trade route, which has helped soften rate declines there.
Looking forward, van de Wouw anticipates that forwarders will prioritize cost control as revenue growth slows. He warns that competition for market share is set to intensify, which will likely keep rates under pressure into 2026. While tariffs have provided a temporary boost to air freight, sluggish growth in general cargo is lowering expectations for the coming year.