The global fleet is undergoing a seismic shift as changing alliances, geopolitical dynamics, and an aging fleet reshape the landscape. At the center of it all, the Gemini Alliance is making waves, challenging competitors to match its ambitious schedule reliability while shippers and carriers navigate tariff-driven supply chain adjustments.
A Promising Start, But the Jury’s Still Out
Since its launch in February, Gemini has set its sights on achieving a 90% reliability rate. According to Xeneta’s senior shipping analyst, Emily Stausbøll, the alliance is off to a strong start, with Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk reporting reliability rates of 90% and 89%, respectively. These figures far outpace the global average of 60%, which, while improved, still lags behind pre-pandemic levels.
“The start looks promising,” Stausbøll noted, but she also highlighted a critical caveat: the figures exclude the transshipment component of Gemini’s services. This omission has left some shippers skeptical, hesitant to fully integrate Gemini’s 90% reliability claims into their supply chains. “There’s still a way to go before shippers fully buy in,” she added.
Feeder Services: The Backbone of Reliability
Darron Wadey of container consultancy Dynamar believes Gemini’s shuttle services could be operating at similar reliability levels, provided they are fully committed to supporting mainline vessels with a seamless, integrated service. However, the lack of a fixed schedule for these shuttles complicates measurement, as they depend heavily on mainline operations.
Meanwhile, the feeder ship sector is grappling with its own challenges. Maritime Strategies International (MSI) reports a 230% surge in feeder vessel orders in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, driven not by Gemini’s success but by the aging fleet. With 50% of feeder vessels over 15 years old—and half of those exceeding 20 years—carriers are racing to modernize.
A Looming Feeder Tonnage Shortfall
Despite the uptick in orders, the feeder fleet faces a potential 10% undersupply by 2030, according to shipbroker Braemar. Demolition rates have plummeted, with just 10 ships in the 100-3,999 TEU range scrapped in the first half of 2025, compared to 38 during the same period in 2024. This slowdown, coupled with rising demand, underscores the urgency of fleet renewal.
New Builds and Shifting Supply Chains
The influx of new vessels—2.27 million TEU in 2023, 4.15 million in 2024, and 2.22 million in the first half of 2025—has bolstered schedule reliability, even as geopolitical tensions force Asia-Europe routes to detour around the Cape of Good Hope. These larger, more efficient ships are also reshaping supply chains, as tariffs on Chinese goods and the removal of de minimis tax exemptions drive manufacturing to Southeast Asia, Southern and Central America, and logistics hubs in the Middle East.
The long-term impact of these shifts remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Gemini’s bold moves are setting the stage for a new era in global shipping.
source: ©SeatradeMaritimeNews by Nick Savvides