BIMCO has updated its 2025 ship demand growth forecast, raising it to 4.5–5.5% due to stronger trade activity outside North America. The 2026 forecast remains unchanged at 2.5–3.5%. According to Chief Shipping Analyst Niels Rasmussen, market conditions in 2025 are expected to be weaker than in 2024, with a more balanced outlook anticipated for 2026.
North American imports are projected to decline by 2% in 2025, influenced by tariff increases, before returning to growth in 2026.
Global cargo growth is forecasted at 2.5–3.5% annually for both 2025 and 2026, driven by increased exports from Asia to Africa, South America, and Europe. Ship demand continues to be elevated due to rerouted traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, as Suez Canal transits remain 90% below pre-crisis levels.
Supply growth is estimated at 7.3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. Rasmussen highlighted that freight rates may face further pressure in late 2025 but are expected to stabilize in 2026 as supply and demand reach equilibrium.